A mighty nation aspiring to be a global superpower has been brought to a virtual standstill because its supreme leader, Xi Jinping, does not want to take any chance on the way to ensure a record third term in power. That is the tragedy facing China now. With the National People’s Congress of China in 2018 approving the removal of the two-term limit on presidency, President of China Xi Jinping can now effectively remain in power for life. Still, the formality of the Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) putting the rubber stamp of approval on his third term in presidency has yet to be completed.
The most visible manifestation of this uncertainty is the draconian lockdown norms enforced as part of a zero–Covid policy. Residents of Shanghai are faced with dire living conditions given that the lockdown prevents them from even stepping out of their houses to meet their daily necessities, or they otherwise face beatings by the police. Yet, the Health Minister of China, Ma Xiaowei, has lately ruled out any relaxation in the lockdown norms before the completion of the Congress of the Community Party of China (CPC) later in 2022. Residents of Shanghai and in other parts of China would thus have to wait in anticipation when to go out of their houses to collect food and to resume their normal chores. Amid mounting discontent over strict lockdown norms, the Health Minister of China has emphasized that the country must stick to the zero-Covid policy.
The date of the 20th National Congress of CPC to be held in 2022 has not yet been announced, except that it would be held sometime in the second half of the year. The Congress of the CPC, which is held once every five years, has assumed special significance in 2022 as President of China Xi Jinping is expected to get endorsement for a third tenure for five years as head of the party, the military and the presidency. This is something unprecedented, as all his predecessors had retired after completing two five-year terms in office according to the norm. With this likely endorsement, Xi is expected to continue in power for his whole life, like the founder of the Communist party Mao Zedong. Xi Jinping has been unanimously elected a delegate to the 20th National Congress of the CPC by the Guangxi Regional Congress of the CPC accompanied with a burst of applause, according to a Xinhua report on April 22, 2022. His choice as a delegate is more of a formality than anything else. According to public-policy analysts in China, this does not automatically ensure his election as the general secretary of the CPC for another term. In 2012, former President of China Hu Xintao too was chosen as a representative to the 18th National Congress of CPC when he handed over the baton to Xi Jinping.
True, proteges of Xi Jinping make up for the majority of the all-powerful 25-member Standing Committee of the CPC Politburo, but still there may be detractors to challenge the leadership of Xi Jinping, who has introduced changes which may not have gone down well with everyone in the party leadership. In what has been interpreted as his intention to stay on as chief of the party, in a New Year’s tea party of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Committee on December 31, 2021, Xi Jinping described the National Congress of the CPC as “a major event in the political life of the party and the country.” Significantly, all top leaders of the CPC attended the meeting; except Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress Li Zhanshu who is third in the CPC hierarchy. Analysts point out that it is rare for a top party member to be absent from such gatherings.
As the Congress of the CPC approaches, everything does not seem to be hunky-dory for President Xi Jinping. The era of Xi Jinping has been marked by controversial measures like crackdown on corruption, punishing over a million officials, weeding out efficient officials in the process. Reliability and loyalty are now the only criteria for heading public- and private-sector organizations. Observers believe this is one of the reasons why the pandemic situation has been mismanaged, leading to food shortage in cities like Shanghai and Xi’an and the spectre of a crop failure in rural areas. On the international front, the emphasis of Xi Jinping on occupation of Taiwan and the smothering of democracy in Hong Kong under the National Security Law have resulted in a sharp deterioration of relationship with the USA and other Western countries.
After the removal of the two-term limit on presidency in 2018, Fan Liqin, a liberal intellectual, in an article written in the forum of Peking University, accused Xi Jinping of promoting “personality cult.” He feared that a personality cult around the leader would result in a great tragedy for China and the Chinese people. “I am already over 70. I am a survivor of hardships. I never dreamt that I would see a leader building up a personality cult again in my lifetime,’’ he wrote. In another sign of dissent against the move to remove the time-limit on presidency, Li Datong, a former editor with State-run China Youth Daily, wrote an open letter to members of the National People’s Congress, asking them to vote against the motion. Analysts have warned that the CPC in the coming days may be faced with instability as no successor for Xi Jinping has been named.
There is a reason for the president to make his case watertight, while approaching the National Congress of the CPC as a third term in power is unprecedented. If the common people of China have to groan under the pressure of draconian lockdown norms to ensure this, it is a small price to pay. The incidents of Covid deaths in Shanghai do not warrant an alarm. According to media reports quoting the Shanghai Health Commission, in the two-month period between late February and late April, there were 87 Covid-related deaths. The average age of the people who died was close to 80 years. all suffering from other diseases. Other cities in China have not escaped the attention of overzealous officials anxious to enforce a zero-Covid norm till President Xi Jinping is assured of his third term in power.
The draconian measures have taken a heavy toll on business and public morale. Travels during the May Day holidays have been cancelled and business has been hit badly as a consequence. President of the EU Chamber in China, Joerg Wuttke, in an interview stated that China is losing credibility as the best sourcing location in the world. Because of the prolonged lockdown in Shanghai, the biggest business hub of China, the Chinese economy is suffering an enormous slump. The supply chains are so interlinked that lockdown in one place is having ripple effects in other regions. The (political) price for re-election keeps growing by the day.
