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Sala StampaNo New Cold War: Why US-China Strategic Competition will...

No New Cold War: Why US-China Strategic Competition will not be like the US-Soviet Cold War

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China’s central position in a globalized transnational production chain that includes many US allies and the absence of an active struggle for ideological supremacy between Chinese authoritarianism and liberal democracy both mean that we are unlikely to see the rise of globally opposed alliance systems as we did in the Cold War. Especially given China’s continued weakness in military power projection compared to the United States and its global alliance system, without China actively sparking or joining an ideological struggle between authoritarianism and democracy in far-flung sections of the world, we should not see something akin to the global US-USSR Cold War. For the foreseeable future, barring a massive escalation of tensions on the Korean peninsula, the US-China strategic competition will likely continue to take place at sea and in the air, not on land. As Tunsjo argues, domination or total control of the sea is difficult at best, and early, offensive action or sharp escalation in areas with unpopulated reefs and rocks provides little strategic advantage to the aggressor. Therefore, crises over these disputes should be manageable even as they become more frequent, as Tunsjo argues.

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